The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United States fell by 4.565 million barrels in the week ended April 18. The institute estimated an increase of 2.4 million barrels in the previous week.
So far this year, crude oil inventories remain high at more than 19 million barrels, according to Oil Price calculations based on American Petroleum Institute data.
Earlier this week, the U.S. Department of Energy reported that crude oil inventories in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) rose by 500,000 barrels to 397.5 million barrels in the week ended April 18. Stock levels in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve are hundreds of millions lower than stock levels before the withdrawal of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve under the Biden administration.
Brent crude rose by $1 (+1.51%) on the day, leaving the global benchmark index at $67.26. Although down during the day, it represents a $3 rebound from the same period last week, and a recovery of about $6 from its lows following the announcement of the Liberation Day fee.
WTI crude rose on the day, $1.12 (+1.48%) to $64.20, up $3 per barrel from last week’s level.
Gasoline inventories in the week ended April 18 fell by 2.180 million barrels, after falling by 3 million barrels the previous week. According to the latest U.S. Energy Information Administration data, gasoline inventories, as of last week, were 1% below their five-year average at this time of year.
Distillate inventories fell this week, by 1.640 million barrels in the last week. In the previous week, distillate inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels.
Oil rises as tensions calm and inventories fall
Oil prices rebounded yesterday, along with other riskier assets. Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) settled up 1.8% on the day after President Trump eased concerns about the future of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. According to ING commodities experts Ewa Manthe and Warren Patterson.
Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) confirms the existence of pressures on the oil market.
Trump has stated that he has no intention of firing Powell. In addition, comments by both President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Biscent on tariffs opened the door to easing tensions between the United States and China. However, indicators of tightness in the spot oil market are expected to continue to support it. This narrowness can be seen in the reinforcement of time differences. Where oil production decisions are mainly influenced by market fundamentals and geology. Saudi and Russian oil production decisions may be influenced by factors other than market fundamentals.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) figures released last night were also positive. U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 4.57 million barrels, while inventories in Cushing fell by 354,000 barrels. Inventories of refined products also fell, with gasoline and distillate inventories falling by 2.18 million barrels and 1.64 million barrels, respectively.
The most followed EIA report will be released later today. The figures similar to those of the American Petroleum Institute will mark an eighth consecutive week of declines in gasoline inventories. As of last week, gasoline inventories are 1% below their five-year average at this time of year.
U.S. oil production is expected to peak in 2027. Amid limited global competition and weak demand growth, raising concerns about market stability and future price volatility.
USOIL production to peak in 2027
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicted in its 2025 annual Energy Outlook report that US oil production will peak in 2027.
The United States is the world’s largest oil producer and produced more crude oil than any other country during 2018-2024. U.S. crude oil production, including condensate. Averaged 12.9 million barrels per day in 2023. Breaking the previous U.S. and world record of 12.3 million barrels per day set in 2019. In 2024, production exceeded 13.2 million barrels per day.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, no other country is likely to break the U.S. crude oil production record in the near term. Given that no other country has reached its production capacity of 13.0 million barrels per day. Only Saudi Arabia and Russia have the capacity to keep up with U.S. oil production. But global market prices may not offer enough incentive to increase production.
Oil demand growth peaked in the Global North. Efforts to reduce carbon emissions in the transport sector are limiting the growth of demand for crude oil. Which in turn contributes to containing rising oil prices. Unlike the United States. Where oil production decisions are primarily influenced by market fundamentals and geology. Saudi and Russian oil production decisions may be influenced by factors other than market fundamentals.
The latest U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed that distillate inventories were already about 11% below their five-year average through the week ending April 11. Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed that inventories of Cushing — the reference crude stored and traded at the main delivery point for U.S. futures in Cushing, Oklahoma — fell by 354,000 barrels. Offsetting last week’s increase of 349,000 barrels.
