EURUSD | Technical Outlook
EURUSD Price Target: Market Structure
The EURUSD Price Target remains tilted to the downside as the pair trades around 1.1538, consolidating near recent lows after a sharp decline from the 1.1630–1.1645 region. The latest move has pushed EURUSD below its short- and medium-term moving averages, keeping sellers in control across the H1 and H4 timeframes.
The H4 chart shows a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows, while the daily chart confirms that the late-August recovery has lost momentum. On M15, price is attempting to stabilize around 1.1530–1.1540, but the rebound remains limited. Unless EURUSD recovers above nearby resistance, the current consolidation appears more consistent with a pause in the decline than a confirmed reversal.
Key Resistance Zone
Immediate resistance is located around 1.1545–1.1560, supported by:
- Recent M15 and H1 breakdown levels
- Short-term moving-average resistance
- Previous intraday support that could now act as resistance
A confirmed recovery above this zone could expose:
- 1.1580–1.1590
- 1.1605–1.1620
- 1.1630–1.1645
A sustained H4 recovery above 1.1600–1.1620 would begin to weaken the immediate bearish structure.
Key Support Zone
Immediate support is located around 1.1520–1.1530, where buyers have recently attempted to slow the decline.
A confirmed breakdown below this area could expose:
- 1.1500
- 1.1470–1.1480
- 1.1430–1.1440
The psychological 1.1500 level is particularly important. A sustained move beneath it could reinforce bearish momentum and expose deeper daily support.
EURUSD Price Target: Expectations
Bearish Scenario (Primary)
As long as EURUSD remains below 1.1560, the short-term bias favors sellers.
A confirmed break below 1.1520 could trigger:
- A move toward 1.1500
- Extension toward 1.1470–1.1480
- A deeper decline toward 1.1430–1.1440
The downward alignment of the H1 and H4 moving averages continues to support this scenario.
Bullish Scenario (Alternative)
If buyers successfully defend 1.1520–1.1530, EURUSD could attempt a corrective recovery from the current support area.
A confirmed move above 1.1560 could open the way toward:
- 1.1580–1.1590
- 1.1605–1.1620
- Potentially 1.1630–1.1645 if momentum improves
A sustained break above 1.1620 would provide stronger evidence that the current bearish phase is losing momentum.
Outlook
EURUSD remains under bearish pressure across the H1 and H4 timeframes, while the daily chart shows the pair testing an important area following its reversal from the August highs. The immediate battle around 1.1520–1.1540 could determine whether the decline extends or a corrective recovery develops.
The near-term EURUSD Price Target shifts toward 1.1500 if sellers secure a confirmed break below 1.1520, with 1.1470–1.1480 becoming the next downside area. Conversely, reclaiming 1.1560 could give buyers room for a recovery toward 1.1580–1.1590 and potentially 1.1620.
