OPEC forecast: Russian oil rises to 80,000 barrels per day


The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) today raised its forecast for oil and condensate production in Russia for 2023 by 80,000 barrels per day, reaching an average of 10.6 million barrels per day.

OPEC’s monthly report indicated that “for 2023, Russian oil production is expected to decline by 0.4 million barrels per day to an average of 10.6 million barrels per day, which was revised up by about 80 million barrels per day from the previous month’s assessment.”.

In its latest report, OPEC also updated its forecast for global oil demand for 2023 slightly, and expects an increase of 2.5 million barrels per day to reach 102.1 million barrels per day.”For 2023, global oil demand growth is revised slightly upwards compared to the previous valuation to 2.5 million barrels per day, reaching an average of 102.1 million barrels per day,” the report said.”.

Russia decided to extend its voluntary oil production cut by 500,000 barrels per day until the end of December 2024. Novak said the advertised amount of voluntary cuts had been reached in April.

OPEC also kept its forecast for US oil and condensate production in 2023 unchanged, explaining that it expects it to rise by 800,000 barrels per day to reach 12.8 million barrels per day.

OPEC has updated its 2023 oil production forecast for non-OPEC countries and expects an increase of 1.8 million bpd to 67.6 million bpd.Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced on November 5 that Russia would extend the voluntary reduction of its oil exports by 300,000 barrels per day until the end of 2023.

price of oil recorded $ 82.67 Brent crude & 78.39 for US 

Global oil markets are witnessing constant price fluctuations and several challenges affecting the energy industry. In recent weeks, oil prices have risen significantly, with Brent crude futures at $82.67 per barrel and US West Texas Intermediate crude at $78.39. The increase comes amid concerns about demand and economic growth, casting a shadow over oil markets.

Challenges related to supply and demand:

The oil industry faces significant challenges in terms of supply and demand. In the United States, the US Energy Information Administration indicates that the country’s crude production will be lower than expected, while demand is expected to decline. This reflects global economic tensions and challenges related to the COVID-19 pandemic, which have significantly impacted various economic sectors.

Oil production cuts:

For their part, Saudi Arabia and Russia announced that they will continue to reduce voluntary oil production until the end of the year, with the aim of enhancing the stability of oil markets and enhancing the future prospects of the energy industry. These cuts come amid ongoing concerns and volatility in global markets, and reflect the commitment of these two key oil industry countries to adjust supplies to meet current challenges.

Challenges of the oil industry in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq:

In the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, the oil industry faces particular challenges. KRG Prime Minister Masrour Barzani announced the region’s readiness to resume oil exports, pointing to the significant economic damage caused to the public treasury as a result of the suspension of oil exports. The government aims to secure the financial and technical needs of the oil export process through coordination and joint work with the Iraqi Ministry of Oil. The government is targeting practical and successful solutions to disburse financial dues for oil production and transportation operations, which have been allocated in the federal budget.

Future challenges and trends of the oil industry:

The oil industry faces future challenges related to market volatility, environmental challenges and stringent environmental legislation. The increasing reliance on renewables and the shift towards clean energy pose a challenge to the traditional oil industry. In addition, geopolitical tensions and regional conflicts can affect oil supply and prices.In order to address these challenges, oil market players should take action to promote the stability of the sector and diversify energy sources. It should invest in research and development to improve oil extraction technology and improve process efficiency. International cooperation in coordinating production and distribution policies should be strengthened to ensure the stability of world markets.

The oil industry faces significant challenges amid price fluctuations and economic and political tensions. Market players must work together to enhance the stability of the sector and improve the future prospects of the energy industry. Investment in research and development should also be promoted to improve oil technology and diversify energy sources. With international cooperation and good coordination, current challenges can be overcome and the oil industry can be sustained in the future.

Iraq hopes to reach an agreement with the Kurdistan to oil

Iraqi Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani expressed optimism that an agreement could be reached with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to resume oil exports in the coming days. Abdul Ghani noted that joint oil production contracts signed with the KRG were “unacceptable” and suggested changing them to profit-sharing contracts.

The statement comes amid a halt in the pumping of crude oil from northern Iraq to Turkey for more than seven months, as Baghdad and Istanbul announced that they had reached an “understanding” to resume the flow of oil. Although Turkey has announced its readiness to resume operations via the pipeline, Iraq has confirmed that it has not received any official notification in this regard.

A senior energy adviser said Baghdad was waiting for “outstanding financial and technical problems” to be resolved before operations could resume. The International Chamber of Commerce has ruled that compensation will be paid to Baghdad amounting to about $1.5 billion for unauthorized exports by the Kurdistan Regional Government.

The resumption of oil exports from northern Iraq to Turkey is important for the Iraqi economy, as oil is a major source of national revenue. The KRG is a region with rich oil resources, and many foreign oil companies operate in this region.

It is important that Iraq and the Kurdistan Region reach an agreement that meets the interests of both parties and ensures the stability of oil exports. Changing existing contracts to profit-sharing contracts is an important step in this direction, as this approach could enhance trust and cooperation between the Iraqi government, the KRG, and foreign oil companies.

IEA raises forecast for oil demand growth

The International Energy Agency has raised its forecast for global oil demand growth this year and next, despite an expected slowdown in economic growth for almost all major economies. These projections point to continued global oil demand, despite the shift towards renewables and efforts to transition to a low-carbon economy.

According to the IEA report, the forecast for global oil demand in 2023 has been raised to 2.4 million barrels per day, compared to 2.3 million barrels per day in the previous forecast. The demand forecast for 2024 was also raised by 930,000 bpd, bringing the total forecast to 2.2 million bpd.

The agency notes that this projected growth in demand is due to strong U.S. deliveries and record demand from China in September. The outlook for 2024 was also supported by hopes of a rate cut and a recent decline in crude prices.

For its part, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) revised its forecast for global oil demand growth this year to 2.5 million barrels per day, up about 100,000 barrels from last month’s forecast. This was attributed to an increase in Chinese demand in the third quarter.

Despite these optimistic expectations, some factors must be taken into account. The shift towards renewables and the move towards a low-carbon economy will pose a challenge for the oil industry in the future. Environmental issues and potential risks of climate change also make it necessary to work to balance meeting global oil demand with environmental sustainability goals.

In general, oil market variables and economic markets continue to affect the outlook for global oil demand. These variables may include geopolitical developments, such as political tensions in key production areas or the escalation of regional conflicts, as well as changes in countries’ economic and energy policies.