XAUUSD | Technical Outlook
Market Structure
XAUUSD is currently trading around 4808, stabilizing after a short-term bearish correction that followed a failed bullish continuation above recent high. Price recently rejected the 4850 – 4870 resistance zone and declined toward 4800, where it is now attempting to consolidate.
The pullback from the 4860 region toward 4800 reflects a corrective bearish phase within a broader bullish structure, as higher timeframes still show recovery from previous declines.
Key Resistance Zone
Immediate resistance is located at 4835 – 4870, supported by:
- Recent rejection highs on M15 and H1
- Short-term supply zone
- Confluence with moving averages
A breakout above this zone could lead to:
- 4900
- 4950 (next major resistance zone)
As long as price remains below 4870, upside momentum may remain limited in the short term.
Key Support Zone
Immediate support is seen at 4790 – 4770, where price is currently finding demand.
A breakdown below this level would expose:
- 4740
- 4700 (key support and structural level)
A sustained move below 4770 would shift short-term structure to bearish.
Expectations
Bullish Scenario (Alternative)
If price holds above 4790, buyers may attempt to regain control.
A breakout above 4870 could trigger:
- A move toward 4900
- Extension toward 4950
Higher timeframe structure still supports bullish recovery.
Bearish Scenario (Primary)
Failure to break above resistance is likely to result in continued downside pressure.
This could lead to:
- A move back toward 4770
- A deeper decline toward 4740
A break below 4770 would confirm bearish continuation in the short term.
Outlook
Gold remains in a corrective pullback phase after failing to sustain gains above 4850, with price currently consolidating near 4800. While the broader structure remains cautiously bullish, short-term pressure persists below 4870.
Failure to reclaim higher levels may keep gold under pressure, favoring a continuation toward lower support zones before any renewed bullish momentum emerges.
