During the past week, the euro traded between fluctuating levels of ups and downs, as the week started at the level of 1.0987. The price reached a high of 1.1094, while the price fell to a low of 1.0961. At the end of the week, the euro closed at the level of 1.1018.
Over the past week, the price of the Euro has been affected by economic and political events in the Eurozone and beyond. Below we review some of the events that affected the European currency during the period from 23 to 27 April:
- European Central Bank Monthly Report: The European Central Bank has released its monthly report on monetary policy and the economy in the Eurozone. The report indicated an improvement in economic growth in the region, while inflation rates in the region remained low.
- Inflation data in Germany: The German Statistical Office announced inflation data for the month of April. Inflation rates increased by 2.0% compared to the previous month, which indicates higher prices in Germany.
- Warnings issued by the International Monetary Fund: The International Monetary Fund issued warnings about the slowdown in the growth of the global economy, especially in the euro area and Japan, indicating its impact on the price of the euro.
- Political tensions in Italy: Italy witnessed political tensions during the past week, as the Italian Prime Minister submitted his resignation after failing to form a new government. The financial markets in the euro were negatively affected by these tensions.
This Week Most Important News
The Eurozone will witness a number of important economic events this week that are expected to affect the price of the Euro. Here are some of the key events to watch:
- BoJ Meeting: The Bank of Japan holds an important meeting on Wednesday, May 4th. Interest rates are expected to be left unchanged, but any hints about future moves should be watched.
- European Economic Data: Some important economic data is scheduled for release in the Eurozone this week, including the services PMI in the region on Wednesday, and the CPI in Germany on Thursday.
- Annual Meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank: The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank hold their annual meetings in Washington on Friday and Saturday. The main events of this event may include official statements from economic officials about
EURUSD Technical Analysis
Through the technical analysis of the chart shown below, we can conclude that the Euro may witness a decline during this week. Based on that, we recommend selling from the current closing price at 1.1018, and selling in case the price reaches 1.0987. The target level is set at 1.0907, with a stop loss set at 1.1084.
Specifically, it is noted from the chart that the EURUSD is trading within a descending channel, with the continuation of the sharp decline in the recent period, and therefore this trend can be taken into consideration when deciding to sell.
The Federal Reserve’s monthly meeting (FOMC) could also influence the EUR’s movements this week. The meeting is expected to take place on Wednesday, and the board is expected to make a decision on interest policy and other economic updates. Therefore, sudden fluctuations in the euro prices may appear after the announcement of the results of the meeting. The current economic events must be carefully monitored and the news analyzed to determine the appropriate direction for trading.
On the other side, from the chart shown below, we see that the Euro is moving in an upward trend during the current period. In case the continuation of this trend is confirmed, we can consider buying from the closing area at 1.1018. Prices may reach 1.1095 as a profit-taking area. Stop loss should be placed at 1.0960.
The price movement of the British Pound during the past week was characterized by bullishness, as the market started trading at the level of 1.2439. Hence, the British currency witnessed a slight rise in the first days of the week, reaching a high of 1.2582. After that, the pound witnessed a slight decrease to reach as low as 1.2385. At the end of the week, the pound rose again, reaching a closing price of 1.2566.
The British Pound has been on the rise in the past week, thanks to some important economic events that affected the British currency, and here are some details about these events.
- Firstly, we note that the latest economic data showed a rise in the British Consumer Price Index, with inflation reaching 2.1% in April, which indicates a rise in the cost of living. Since the British Central Bank closely follows the consumer price index when making its monetary decisions, this rise in the inflation rate may affect interest policy in the future, which could lead to changes in the value of the pound sterling.
- There are also some political events that affected the pound sterling during the past week, as British Prime Minister Boris Johnson commented on the report on Covid 19 injuries in India, which raised investor concerns about the global economic situation, and caused a decline in global stocks, which leads To increase the demand for the pound sterling as a safe haven.
- At the end of the week, there was a report related to the British industrial sector, where an increase in the industrial activities index for the month of May was announced, which indicates an improvement in the performance of the British industrial sector, and this may help support the pound sterling.
This Week Most Important News
This week, the financial markets will witness many important economic events that could affect the performance of the pound sterling. In this article, we will review some of these events:
- BoE decision: The BoE is expected to issue its decision on interest rate and monetary stimulus policy on Thursday, May 4th. The Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at historically low levels, given the negative economic repercussions of the Corona pandemic. The central bank is expected to continue applying monetary stimulus policy aimed at supporting economic growth.
- Jobs data: UK jobs data is scheduled for release on Tuesday, May 2nd, which could affect the performance of the pound sterling. The UK unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%, but the number of jobs available in the private sector may change.
- EU-UK Talks: Talks are expected to take place between the EU and the UK on future trade relations. These talks may affect the performance of the pound sterling, especially if an agreement is reached on trade between the two parties.
GBPUSD Technical analysis
From the chart below, the movements of the Pound against the Dollar can be indicated which indicates an upward trend. This bullish trend is expected to continue, so we will prefer to enter long positions. We will start buying at the closing price at 1.2566, and we will consolidate long positions if the price reaches 1.2523. We target profit when reaching the 1.2640 area, and we set the stop loss area at 1.2425. It should be noted that prices may move in unexpected directions, and therefore we should analyze the risks carefully and set stop-loss areas before entering the trades.
In the alternative scenario, we can sell from the current closing price of 1.2566, and then consolidate the sale when the price reaches 1.2517. In order to take profits, we can target the area at 1.2433, and we should set a stop loss at 1.2623. We must note that this scenario requires a good analysis of the current market situation before making any buying or selling decisions.
Last week, the gold markets were characterized by a slight rise, as the week opened at the 1981 region and rose to its highest level at 2008, and fell to its lowest level at 1973. At the end of the week, the price of gold rose to 1988, which indicates positive expectations for investors in gold. This rise can be attributed to the global economic uncertainty and global political tensions, which increase the demand for safe haven gold. Thus, gold may be a good choice for investors who seek to protect their portfolio from political and economic fluctuations.
The price of gold got affected by many factors, including economic and political news that affects investment expectations, inflation, government returns, and other factors. Last week, the gold market witnessed some news that caused some price movements.
On Monday, gold saw a slight decline in its price due to higher US yields. On Tuesday, gold prices were volatile and mixed due to the release of high US inflation data. Although this data usually leads to a rally in the price of gold, the previous market response has led to gold selling.
On Wednesday, gold saw a significant rally due to the weakness of the US dollar and concerns regarding global capital inflows. On Thursday, gold prices rose slightly after the release of weak US economic data.
Finally, the week ended with a slight increase in the price of gold due to the weakness of the US dollar and concerns regarding inflation and global economic stability. It should be noted that gold is still considered a safe haven for investors in cases of economic and political instability, and the rise in the price under these circumstances usually reflects that situation.
This Week Most Important News
Global markets will witness many important economic events during the week, and there are some events that will have an impact on gold prices during the period from May 1 to May 5, 2023.
- Nonfarm Payrolls data in the United States: Nonfarm payrolls data will be released in the United States on Friday, May 5th, and this report is considered one of the most important economic reports in the United States. The report is expected to have a significant impact on gold prices, as it is an indicator of the strength and stability of the US economy.
- Data on the industrial sector in China: data on the industrial sector in China is expected to be released on Monday, May 1, and this data is expected to affect gold prices, as China is one of the largest consumers of gold in the world, and the data will also give an idea of The state of the Chinese economy and its strength.
- Inflation data in the Eurozone: Inflation data in the Eurozone will be issued on Wednesday, May 3, and it is expected that this data will affect gold prices, as inflation is an important factor affecting gold prices, as gold is considered one of the safe havens during periods of economic recession and high inflation.
Gold Technical analysis
Based on the chart shown below, it can be seen that the price of gold is moving in an upward direction. Accordingly, we will look for a selling opportunity in the areas marked on the chart. Entry and exit areas are determined based on past and expected future price support and resistance.
Due to the current price action, we suggest entering a short position at the price of 1988 dollars. In the event that the price falls to the 1917 region, the short position can be strengthened there. The first target is expected to be 1772 as a profit-taking area. It is important to set the stop loss area, which should be at 2110, as this price can be key in changing the direction of the price in the future.
From the chart below, it appears that gold is on a bullish trend. In the event that the second scenario is chosen, we can buy from the closing area of $1988, and then consolidate the purchase at the level of $1930. Next, we have to target 2109 as a take profit area, and choose 1810 as a stop loss.
Last week, oil witnessed a decline, as oil began to decline two weeks ago from now until the previous week, so oil trading began last week on Monday 4/24/2023 from the region of 77 dollars per barrel, and from this region, oil reached the highest trading point in the week, which is 79 dollars per barrel Then, oil covered its decline until closing on Friday 4/28/2023, with an attempt to rise at the region of 76 per barrel, and the US crude oil inventories data came less than expected, as the expected was -1.3M, and the actual result appeared less than expected, and it appeared -5.1M, and accordingly, the impact of that on Oil prices
Also, economic news in Canada affects oil, as Canada’s monthly gross domestic product was released last week, less than expected, when it was expected 0.2%, and it was issued 0.1%, and this affected oil.
Next week Important News
Data on the strategic crude oil reserves in the United States, according to the US Energy Information Administration, is expected on Wednesday. The results of this data would have a significant impact on the global energy markets, as results higher or lower than expected could affect oil price movements significantly.
The US Nonfarm Payrolls data will also be released on Friday as one of the most important economic indicators. This report is expected to have a significant impact on oil prices, as it measures the strength and stability of the US economy.
In addition, Canada’s Employment Change and Canada’s Unemployment Rate data are scheduled to be released on Friday as well. These reports will provide a comprehensive view of the economic situation in North America next week, which will help determine the course of oil prices.
USOIL Technical analysis
Overview: The chart shows a downward trend for oil, despite the buyers’ attempt to change the trend for the better.
Selling Opportunities: Given the current price change, we suggest selling Oil at $73 per barrel. If the price drops to $69 a barrel, the first target, the sale could be strengthened there. Then we target $65 a barrel as a second target.
Buying opportunities: There are no opportunities to buy oil at the moment, and we will wait for the bearish trend to be broken to make sure that the bullish trend will resume.
Trading Recommendations: We recommend selling Oil at $73 per barrel, with future sell orders placed at $69 and $65 per barrel. We also recommend placing a stop loss order at $79 per barrel.
Tip: The oil market is very volatile, so it is important to create a trading plan and stick to it. Oil must also be monitored continuously to keep up with any changes in trend.
From the chart below, the trend of oil is to the upside. We choose the second scenario, we wait for the rise to the area of $78 a barrel to buy, to target the area of $82 a barrel, and if we reach the target area, we can download the purchase to reach the second target, which is the $85 area.
The beginnings of the Dow Jones index last week were in an ascending direction, now that the index had tried to drop, then went back up and closed at the beginning of the shift to the upside, as it started trading from the area 33792 on Monday 4/24/2023 to reach its highest peak on Friday 4/28/2023 At the area of 34090, trading was closed at this area, and the Dow Jones index interacted with the data that was issued last week, including the US Consumer Confidence Index (CB). It came less than expected, as it was expected to issue 104.1, but it decreased to issue 101.3.
But the unemployment claims in the United States came well. It was expected that you would increase to the level of 247K, but I said to 230K, and this is a good sign that many Americans are working, which had an impact on the Dow Jones because in the negation of this day, the Dow Jones turned from falling to rising.
We await next week’s data, including:
- Monday 1/5/2023 US ISM Manufacturing PMI (PMI)
- On Tuesday 2/5/2023 job opportunities in the United States
- On Wednesday 3/5/2023, the change in American non-agricultural employment, ADP
Among the most important events that affect everything in the forex market and thus affect the Dow Jones index is the non-farm payrolls data in the United States: the non-farm payrolls data will be released in the United States on Friday, May 5, and this report is considered one of the most important economic reports in the United States. The report is expected to have a significant impact on gold prices, as it is an indicator of the strength and stability of the US economy.
And the Dow Jones started last week in a sideways trend, then fell to the 33179 region, then rose after that to reach the highest point in the week, which is the closing area also 34090.
Dow Jones technical analysis
Based on the chart shown below, it can be seen that the Dow Jones price is moving in an upward direction. Accordingly, we will look for a buying opportunity in the areas marked on the chart. Entry and exit areas are determined based on past and expected future price support and resistance.
Due to the current price action, we suggest entering a long position at the price of $34,090. This is due to the buyer’s attempt to control the trend, so we can buy from the current price to target $34,519, and if we reach the target area and break it, we set the second target at $35,206, with defining an area according to the loss at 33,179.
Technical analysis of the Dow Jones US30 if it returns to the bearish trend:
If the downward trend of the Dow Jones continues, it will look for a sell entry from the support area at $33,381. From here, the Dow Jones can be sold to target the opposite target at $32556, and if the first target is broken, we target 31817, placing a stop loss order at 34657.